Ukrainian dairy exports reach pre-war level

Due to this, the overall Ukrainian dairy exports in January-August 2022 reached 59,400 tonnes, catching up with the same period of the previous year after a slump in foreign sales in March-April due to the Russian invasion.

In August 2022, Ukraine exported a broad range of dairy products, including:

• 3,580 tonnes of non-condensed milk and cream (200% more compared to August of 2021)
• 3,260 tonnes of condensed milk (+100%)
• 273 tonnes of butter dish (-50%)
• 2,530 tonnes of whey (+72%)
• 2,140 tonnes of butter (+250%)
• 1,000 tonnes of cheese (+62%)

The largest importers of Ukrainian dairy products in August 2022 were Moldova (4,400 tonnes), Poland (2,400 tonnes), and China (900 tonnes).

Falling dairy imports

On the other hand, dairy imports are gradually declining. In January-August 2022, 42,300 tonnes of dairy products were imported into the country, which is 37% less than during the same period of the previous year. In August, imports stood at 5,000 tonnes. Ukraine imports cheese, primarily.

Should the current trends continue, Ukraine will likely become a net exporter of dairy products this year, UCAB said.

Weakening domestic demand

The Ukraine union of dairy enterprises predicted that milk production in the country this year would slump by 13-16% to 7.33-7.56 million tonnes from 8.73 million tonnes in 2021, adding the depth of the crisis would be determined by the war.

It is also anticipated that average milk consumption in Ukraine per capita in 2022 will drop by 8% from 212 kg in 2021 to 229 kg this year, primarily due to internal and external migration of the population as millions of Ukrainians were forced to leave their homes.

Exports play an increasingly important role

In the past few months, Ukraine saw a steady rise in prices for dairy products on the domestic market. The Ukraine union of dairy enterprises explained that this was primarily associated with growing export.

In 2022, Ukrainian dairy companies appeared to be competitive on the global market due to a sharp devaluation of the national currency and cheap raw milk. The trend is expected to continue during winter when a drop in dairy production is forecasted in the European Union, the union of dairy enterprises said.